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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."